Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Don't Fight The Fed

That old adage about "not fighting the Fed" is based on a simple but solid fact: ample liquidity translates into a strong stock market. And a strong market is what we have. The talk of a "bear market rally" is correct ONLY if liquidity was not a factor.

Yes, the general economy is still a mess. But the amount and the speed with which the Fed and other Central Banks are injecting liquidity into the global economy all but ensures a strong stock market. Even the length of the global recession is likely to be shorter than expected. Instead of a long flat bottom U shape recovery, we are likely to see one resembling a moderate V.

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